How much business can Fulham do this summer?
It’s time to face the facts that everyone already knows — we’re probably going to be playing in the Championship next season. With sites like FiveThirtyEight projecting Fulham’s chances of relegation at 95%, it’s definitely time to start preparing for our fifth season in six years in the second level of English football. Hey, it’s not all bad — we might win some more games!
We know that we’re going to have to trim the squad for a rebuild in the Championship. The question remains though, how much can we bring in after the sales and trimming has been completed. What can the club do to at least strengthen their core squad in the Championship for a possible promotion campaign. Well, let’s have a look.
First, let’s confront some historical realities about previously relegated Premier League clubs.
1. Almost every club that has been relegated since the parachute payments laws were “relaxed” in 2016 have made over £20 million* in player sales in the summer transfer window, with the only exception being Norwich City in 2016/17 (they made slightly over £12 million). This dumb notion that I’ve seen going around social media and the forms that we’re going to be able to keep a lot, if not all of the players from this season for the Championship, is ridiculous.
2. In that same time frame, only one club has spent over double of what they earned in player sales from that window — Aston Villa in 16/17 (approximately £53 million spent to £24 million made). Look how that well that turned out for them (so far). They were also the second biggest spenders in the past three summer transfer windows, behind Newcastle in 16/17, who raised over £90 million through sales of the likes of Gini Wijnaldum and Moussa Sissoko.
3. Sticking to that train of thought, only three other clubs spent more than they made off player sales in the summer window — Stoke, Middlesbrough in 17/18 and Norwich in 16/17. On average, those three clubs spent only £5 million more they raised in sales. Simply put, Villa are the only exception in recent years where a club spent a huge amount over what they made — this just doesn’t happen anymore.
4. With EFL FFP rules currently set at clubs being allowed to make a £39 million loss over three years (I think), it’s fairly likely FFC will sell a fair amount this summer to get their books in order for the next few years while allowing them to spend a lot this summer and maintain monetary flexibility for future years if they stay in the Championship.
Secondly, some player assumptions with regards to cutting the wage bill and raising cash.
1. Ayite, Kebano, Markovic and Babel will all very likely be released at the end of their contracts finishing this summer. I’ve been pleasantly surprised by Babel and if he was willing to take a big wage cut, I’d actually re-sign him but I seriously doubt him and the club would be interested in that scenario. The club has options on Odoi, Kebano, Ayite and Johansen, which I could see them triggering just to get a fee for all of them, although I’d wager that the only ones they’ll actually trigger will be Johansen and Odoi.
2. The loanees of Vietto, Fosu-Mensah, Rico, Chambers and Nordtveit will all not be with us in the Championship and Schürrle exercises his release clause to get out of his two year loan (please!!!). Already, that’s a huge amount of wages cut from the bill.
3. Mitrovic, Ryan Sessegnon and Seri will 100% be sold sadly. If reports are true that we were turning down £50million offers for Mitrovic from China in January, it’s certainly possible FFC can get to that figure again, if not higher, for him in the summer. It’s slightly harder to forecast Seri given he’ll be turning 28 but it’s possible that FFC can recoup the fee they paid for him in the summer (reportedly £28million), with maybe a small loss. Sessegnon will no doubt solicit offers from the big six — how high they get to depends on the bidding war, if one ensues.
4. Cairney is harder to forecast for a variety of reasons (age, club captain, fairly underwhelming season, etc) and could stay at the club if Fulham, were to change managers to one that made him feel comfortable staying at the club while getting the most out of him as a player. At this point though, I’d still say his chances of leaving are slightly higher than those of staying, especially with the club primed for a rebuild. It’s also hard not to imagine that clubs like West Ham are still interested him from a year or so ago.
5. Finally, I think we’d need to let the new manager decide on the likes of Fabri, Zambo and MLM in the Championship. Unless the club were really as so stupid not to put relegation reduction clauses on the wages in their contracts, I could kind of see those three all staying (or being forced to stay, rather). Again, it’d depend on who they bring in as manager — I just don’t see Ranieri wanting to manage in the Championship — or the club being interested in him doing so.
So realistically, going off of history, Fulham could probably spend over £50million, possibly more, if the forecasted sales go right for them. This is still a pretty reasonable amount for the Champ — but it really depends on if the Khans are interested in having another shot at the Premier League again (possibly through appointing a manager that can build a team from the back while also generating some exciting attacking play — David Wagner or Graham Potter anyone?).
Given the uncertainties that lie ahead, most of which come down to whether Fulham make any structural changes over the next 4–5 months or so in the managerial, recruitment and coaching hierarchy, it’s still hard to really know what Fulham will do when relegation is confirmed. Still, it doesn’t hurt to at least look at how much we could spend in the window.
*All figures per TransferMarkt
