The Status Quo
Looking Back
A lot of events has transpired since I last wrote an article. Chrexit (as it’s now being called, I believe?) occurred about an hour after I published my most recent column, Brighton robbed us at the Cottage and Floyd Ayite and Neeskens Kebano have left for the Africa Cup of Nations. Despite all this, the club still stands with a good chance of making the playoffs.
I stated to a lot of people after the Brighton game that Fulham had two weeks to find a striker whose name wasn’t Matt Smith. The one we got wasn’t exactly who many expected, as Chris Martin decided he quite liked playing football in a team that catered to him very well and returned after missing half a game against Reading plus Brighton and the Cardiff FA Cup game. I didn’t feel it necessary to write anything on Martin, as my stance was pretty simple and similar to a lot of fans: if he didn’t want to play, then he can kick a ball against a wall in Motspur Park for five months. Thankfully, Martin chose to return, though for how long we’ll see. Barring a promotion success for the Whites, it’d be no surprise to me if Martin returns to Derby in the summer.
Barnsley Thoughts
Barring a “wonder-shot” from Adam Hammill that hit the crossbar, this was an easy game for Fulham, especially the second half. After half time, Fulham allowed only one shot by Barnsley, an effort from distance by Conor Hourihane that was comfortably saved by David Button. It’s a relief to see that Fulham are finally hitting their stride as a defensively adept team, despite Slavisa Jokanovic’s continuous selection of Tim Ream. Of course, having Tomas Kalas back is always an excellent addition to the back four. Kalas just brings an air of defensive confidence about him, as well as calmness on the ball. While I have been historically bearish on Ream, Saturday was one of his better performances and him and Kalas do seem to have a good understanding of a defensive partnership, a relief to see after 4 awful years of terrible defences.
I should also point out my MotM, Kevin McDonald. It was clear (at least to me) what Barnsley would do, soak up pressure and counter very quickly, which they were able to do at times in the first half in a very quick and rapid fashion. They’ve done this all season and it’s had a lot of success so far this season, so if it ain’t broke don’t fix it, right? McDonald pretty much saw an end to their entire tactic, breaking up play after play every time Barnsley got on the ball to incredible effect. Having a defensive midfielder like McDonald, whose comfortable on the ball and able to spray it around to players, has been such a beneficial force to Fulham. You could argue he has been Fulham’s most important signing that they have made.
Chris Martin came in a close second for me in a triumphant return for the forward. Alongside scoring a penalty (only our 2nd of the season!!!!), Martin’s assist for Scott Malone’s volley was delightfully done. His physicality against the Barnsley centre backs was a real force to be reckoned with and his hold-up play just bring so much to Fulham’s attack, bringing in the likes of Aluko and Piazon. His pass map (below) just shows how creative his play is (look at the green!!!), creating chances that the likes of Smith and Woodrow just aren’t able to do.
It’s also worth mentioning that with Martin, Fulham are a totally different proposition. When Matt Smith featured against Brighton, balls were pumped forward to him continuously, with Shane Duffy and Lewis Dunk winning the aerial battle time after time. Smith offering nothing on the floor really affected the team, forcing the likes of Aluko and Piazon to try and create something out of nothing from the wings, rather than centrally, as the Whites like to do with Martin.
Looking Forward
Fulham now have four away league games on the trot: QPR, Reading, Burton and Birmingham. Including the Hull FA Cup game, that’s 5 games in two weeks. That’s not exactly an endearing schedule. Thankfully, a lot of these teams have (big) issues of their own. QPR remain in the bottom half after a disastrous start under Holloway, though have won their past 3 games. Reading are a mess at the back and the advanced analytics community are shouting Enron-related curse words at Jaap Stam’s team. Burton have begun their flirtation with the relegation zone (as expected) and Birmingham under Zola have gone careering away from the playoffs (who could’ve seen that coming?). Will we win all 4? No. This is Fulham, remember! But 8-9 points has to be the minimum if we want to stay in touch with the top 6.
Fulham’s business in the January window has been quiet, to no one’s real surprise. Ibrahima Cisse, a defensive midfielder from Standard Liege in Belgium, has been the main “linkee” of the window, though how truthful these reports are, we shall see. January is always a window where business is done in the final week, so don’t be surprised if we start to hear more rumours about Fulham’s “business” after the Reading game. With regards to outgoings, the “invisible man” Jozabed has departed on loan, to no one’s real surprise, given rumours of failing to settle in England, which is a shame as I thought he was excellent against Middlesborough in the EFL Cup but has barely featured since signing for the club. Finally, Lucas Piazon extended his loan from Chelsea to the end of the season. Piazon has been an excellent bonus signing for Fulham, being able to cover almost anywhere in the attacking midfield spots that Fulham like to use, specifically Floyd Ayite’s left wing spot.
Advanced Analytics
As many on Twitter would know, I’ve been publishing weekly championship expected goals (xG) data for some time now, specifically xG“ratings” of such, and have received many queries over these “ratings”, with regards to methodology and what exactly expected goals are. In reality, this is much more a ratio than an actual rating of a team. The xG rating/ratio is essentially TSR (Total Shots Ratio = Shots for/(shots for + shots against)) but using xG data rather than shots. TSR has historically been a good indicator of how well a team has performed but crucially flawed because shot data doesn’t quantify different shot values i.e. a tap in from six yards out directly in front of goal is going to have a much higher “value” than a 30 yarder long shot that’s unlikely to go in (to say the least). This is where expected goals comes into play. In layman’s terms, xG assigns a numerical value to the quality of the shot, based on a shot map or other method of tracking shots. These’ll be totalled up after the match concludes to provide an expected goals score for the game. Thus, we can get now a much more accurate representation of how teams are performing using xG. As you can see here, Reading are the massive blinking anomaly, with their xGR way below what teams like Fulham and Wednesday are producing DESPITE Reading being currently higher than these teams.
Now, does this mean Reading are a worse team than the aforementioned ones? Errr, I’ll leave that to you (*whispers* Reading have the 4th worst graded defence in league according to xG). Does this mean that Reading are due a drop in form at some point and will regress? Again, I defer to the previous answer. This is football after all. Unpredictability is paramount in this sport and ultimately, the league table is what governs the playoff spots. While xG is a great new tool for analytics, it is not an oracle that can predict the future perfectly (sadly) but I’ll be damned if it isn’t the best authority at the moment for future performance.
Methodology done, onto Fulham.
I’ve borrowed Ben Mayhew’s scatter graph format for the purpose of this article. Obviously, it’s not as pretty, but it’ll do. Anyway, xG has Fulham graded, well, great! Fulham are scoring a whole .15 goal’s per game more than the next best rated attack in Bristol City, which is ridiculous. Compared to last season, Fulham are scoring 0.5 more expected goals this season(1.7 to 1.2), which is an even better improvement for an attack that was regarded as pretty good last year. Defensively, Fulham are improving into a better unit. They’re not conceding as many chances as last year (thank god) but are still letting in an about slightly above-average number of goals. They’ve actually let in the same amount of goals that Huddersfield have scored BUT Huddersfield are currently grading as a defensively top 5 team (work needed on the attack).
So the numbers are telling us Fulham are pretty good. The eye test is telling us Fulham are fun to watch and also good. So why are we out the playoffs? Is it bad luck? Is it injuries? I’d put it to a case of both. We’ve missed Tomas Kalas for some important games and his return to the team has benefitted us. We’ve missed Floyd Ayite and Chris Martin at times, alongside Jokanovic finding out our best lineup. Plus missing bloody penalties (hit them with power!!!). But it’s coming together now. We’re on the cusp of hitting a win streak, provided stupid things don’t happen.
Behind Enemy Lines: QPR
It’s been a remarkable three months since Fulham lost to QPR, and in a way, the loss benefitted them, as they found the perfect formation that worked for the team. The likes of Jozabed and Ryan Tunnicliffe were banished while Kevin McDonald, Stefan Johansen, Ryan Fredericks were reintroduced to the team, while Slavisa Jokanovic switched from a 4231 to a 433. Since then, Fulham has only lost to Brighton and Aston Villa. It’s also worth noting that Tomas Kalas didn’t feature in that game and having him in the team solidifies Fulham’s defence so much more.
Rangers have been in free-fall since their victory. They sacked Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink and replaced him with Ian Holloway, which dumbfounded I think a lot of us. Needless to say, after an opening win against Norwich, Holloway and QPR went on a six game losing streak but have found form again with wins over Wolves, Ipswich and Reading. There’s a lot you can say about these teams that they’ve beat. The Wolves game was a lucky victory but a win nonetheless. Ipswich at home would normally be regarded as a good win, if it wasn’t for the fact Ipswich are absolutely dreadful this year. I think I’ve said enough about Reading and their false position, but I’ll give QPR the benefit of the doubt and say it’s a good win away from home for them. Analytically, QPR are grading out poorly. Expected goals has them rated as the fifth worst attack in the division and 6th worst defensively. Not exactly something that bodes well for them considering they’re going up against the highest rated attack.
Chris Anderson wrote a “twitter chain” here on QPR before they hit their winning streak on their underlying data performances. The gist of it was this: QPR are getting worse because they’re starting to concede more shots on target while also taking less themselves throughout the season (as you can see). These shots that they themselves are taking are also a lot worse location-wise AND getting blocked more. Now, of course, this was before they hit a 3 game win streak but does it apply still? Sort of. Their locations are better i.e. they’re scoring goals from higher possibility areas. But they’re still a team that doesn’t hit the target as well as they should. They manage fewer shots on target and give away good chances that are being saved by Smithies (see below).
There are some players on Rangers side that are worth pointing out. Pawel Wszolek (Yep, had to look it up) has emerged as a key player down their right wing, almost serving as their creative outlet for Rangers attacks. While I’d normally be terrified of a good winger attacking Scott Malone, Malone has held up well defensively against wingers like Anthony Knockaert and Tom Ince, so I’m slightly more at ease. Idrissa Sylla is their top goalscorer this year but has been average since his signing from Anderlecht in the summer. Nedum Onuoha of course anchors their defence in front of Alex Smithies, who I think it’s safe to say that QPR owe a huge debt to. Smithies has been excellent in goal for them, making lots of impressive saves to keep them in games which Rangers have been fairly hopeless in.
I’ll be honest, these derby games always make me nervous. Despite the fact that we’re comfortable favourites and have a superior team and manager, I always fear that something’s going to go wrong in these games (as we saw last time against QPR). If it’s any comfort, I had the same feeling before the Brentford game and we went on to dominate them, so that’s that. From the team’s point of view, Fulham have to go into this game calmly and not make emotional errors. We all know what Holloway will do. He’ll have the QPR team fired up for a derby game and try to play as dirty as possible. Fulham can’t afford to get hot headed and have to keep their eyes on the prize. If they play as well as we’ve seen them play recently, then they’ll emerge with three points. Besides, the squad will have that QPR defeat ringing in their heads, no?
Fulham should win this game. They’re in “no screwing around” mode since the thrashing of Reading and they haven’t really looked back since. Their constant attacks will trouble QPR and it’s hard to see a Fulham defence with Kalas having too many fits (touch wood). Of course, this is a team that is like to have Tim Ream starting.
Line-up (433): Button, Fredericks, Kalas, Ream, Malone, Cairney, McDonald, Johansen, Aluko, Martin, Piazon. It won’t change, apart from possibly the centre back?
Prediction: 3–1. Martin x2, Piazon. Sylla.
Thanks for reading and as always, I can be found on twitter here. COYW.
